INHALT

Part 01: Economic impact of the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia on the electronics industry

• LCD Panel supply chain: normal production, but supply and demand will be tight

• Mobile phone: weak demand and the impact of 2019-nCoV, mobile phone shipments may not be as expected in 2020

• South Korea invests 400 billion won to deal with the impact of new coronary pneumonia on South Korean industries

• The foreign investors’ views on the impact of the 2019-nCoV: different

PART 02: Real economy of electronics industry under the 2019-nCoV(NCP) situation

• Netcom, optics, and LCD display industries frustrated

• LCD monitor industry is hit in February; Jiashida / Benq material medical business may benefit

• Daliguang’s core production capacity is in Taiwan; Yaguang / Yatai shifts production focus to Myanmar

• U.S.-China trade war causes massive migration of China Netcom’s production capacity

• Short-term performance frustration is inevitable; urgent orders may appear after the epidemic slows.

• CSOT(TCL): Display panel production continues to operate during the Spring Festival. The supply of some production materials may be affected by the epidemic situation and it may be delayed

• Huawei: Production resumed

• BOE: Wuhan production line has not mass-produced, with limited impact on customers

• Shentianma A: The company is in normal production

• Sanan Optoelectronics: factories are concentrated in Xiamen and Quanzhou; Ezhou factory is under construction

• Wuhan Fangu: Has corresponding material inventory reserves, not affected by the 2019-nCoV

• SMIC: Normal production and operation；zero infection of employees

• Yangtze River Storage: Flash memory production is in an orderly manner, and employee health is number one

• Yuexin Semiconductor: The main production lines proceed normally and orderly, and there is no case of infection among the employees of the manufacturer

• TSMC: Current operations are not affected by the pneumonia epidemic

• Corning: There are multiple factories in China to distribute supply pressure

• Wuhan Hongxin: The stage of the machine entering the factory will not affect the subsequent shipment

• Taijing Technology: Emergency construction started on January 31, and the goods were delivered to the “frontline” of the epidemic area on the same day

Part 03: “Financial Times” commentator article: The impact of the pneumonia epidemic caused by 2019-nCoV on China’s economy and finance is temporary

“We believe that China’s smartphone sales in 2020 will face a record low in ten years, and the conversion benefits of new phones brought by 5G will also be suppressed. If the epidemic（2019-nCoV） can be effectively controlled by the end of February, we estimate that domestic smartphone sales will decline by about 9% year-on-year to 350 Millionen Einheiten in 2020; if it continues to extend to the end of April, the impact of the supply chain will be amplified, and the overall sales may show The 17-23% double-digit decline will reduce annual sales to 300-320 million units.”

——CINNO Research

During the Spring Festival in 2020, the pneumonia epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV) in China will center on Wuhan City, Hubei Province, and gradually spread to surrounding provinces and cities. Derzeit, fermentation is continuing, and all sectors of society are affected to varying degrees. For the electronics industry, the first quarter is the traditional off-season, and the annual revenue accounted for less than 20%. CITIC Securities believes that the impact of epidemic prevention and control is expected to be relatively small. The specific impacts still require dynamic observation of the duration and spread of the epidemic.

To prevent the epidemic caused by 2019-nCoV, governments in many places have postponed the resumption of work until February 10 and beyond. According to industry chain surveys, most electronics companies have resumed work more than a week later. The electronics industry’s industrial chains are mostly located in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions Affected by this, industry-related companies are expected to face the risk of reduced capacity utilization caused by unresolved deterministic production staff in February. Gleichzeitig, due to blocked transportation and upstream supply chain companies facing pressure to resume work, some companies will also face the risk of insufficient supply of raw materials. It should be noted that after sorting out, we found that the four types of enterprises with a high degree of automation, overseas deployment, low capacity utilization in the first quarter, and R & D-driven companies were relatively less affected by the epidemic.

The LCD panel supply chain was affected by the epidemic in Wuhan. Also, factories in South Korea and the mainland have closed and reduced production since last year. Im ersten Viertel, the annual repair of some panel factories accelerated the supply and demand of panels to return to normal. In addition to LCD panel quotations rising, supply and demand for related components of LCD have also tightened.

On February 3, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingxuan published a research report that pointed out that the global mobile phone industry will face three major potential risks in the first half of this year, and shipments of Apple and Android phones may be lower than market expectations. Guo Mingxuan said that the three major risks of the mobile phone industry in the first half of this year are: China’s mobile phone market shipments may be lower than expected.

5G mobile phones contributed less than expected to the Android brand replacement demand.

The iPhone supply was affected by the pneumonia outbreak in the first quarter of this year, so shipments may be lower than expected. The first two potential risks mentioned above are demand problems, and the outbreak of pneumonia only accelerates the emergence of these two risks. The last one is more like a supply chain issue, so it is recommended that investors wait for the pneumonia epidemic to stabilize, and investors should pay attention to the iPhone industry chain again. Guo Mingxuan said that China’s mobile phone market shipments will be lower than expected, and high inventory levels are not conducive to mobile phone manufacturers and the industrial chain in the first half of the shipment momentum. According to the latest survey, during the Chinese New Year of 2020, shipments in the Chinese mobile phone market will decrease by about 50% Zu 60% annually, resulting in the current channel of about 50 Zu 60 million stocks to be digested. China’s mobile phone market shipments in 2019 are about 360 million to 380 million. Affected by lower-than-expected demand for 5G replacement and the impact of consumer confidence on the outbreak of pneumonia, the Minguo Guo team estimates that China’s mobile phone shipments will decrease by 15% annually to 3.1 100 million to 330 million. (Market consensus is between 330 million and 350 million.)

Desalting inventory is a top priority for China ’s current Android phone manufacturers. daher, it is expected that mobile phone brand factories will launch active promotions. If all goes well, the inventory level may fall to normal levels at the end of the second quarter or the third quarter. It will be unfavorable for Chinese brand new machine shipments and related industry chains. As for the 5G mobile phone’s contribution to the Android brand’s replacement demand, it will be less than expected. In the high-end Android phone market, Samsung is the most active manufacturer to promote 5G. Huawei cannot suspend sales in overseas markets because it cannot adopt GMS, which should be Samsung’s advantage. Jedoch, Samsung ’s mobile phone shipments in the fourth quarter of last year and January this year decreased by 5% Zu 10% annually, reaching 69 million and 23 million, jeweils, meaning that 5G has not yet been able to attract consumer demand. This factor is due to 5G It is not yet possible to create an experience different from 4G. The supply of the iPhone was affected by the outbreak of pneumonia in the first quarter of this year, so shipments may not be as good as expected. Guo Mingxiu revised down about 10% of iPhone shipments in the first quarter of this year, reaching 360 billion to 40 million. He further pointed out that due to the uncertainty of when the pneumonia epidemic will stabilize and whether iPhone consumer confidence will be affected by pneumonia, it is difficult to estimate shipments in the second quarter.

With the spread of new types of pneumonia epidemic causing the industry to turn on warning lights, the Korean government has prepared emergency support measures for Chinese export companies and Korean companies in China. Taking into account the cash flow of related companies, an emergency investment of 400 billion won (about 2.35 billion yuan) in trade finance was made, and short-term export insurance costs were reduced by up to 35%. The planned events in China in the first quarter will be delayed or replaced by video.

The Ministry of Industry will set up a new type of coronary pneumonia industry trade response team to actively respond to the movement of Korean companies in China and supply and demand of materials and parts imported and exported to China. To provide relevant companies with cash flow capabilities, they will support 400 billion won (about 2.35 billion yuan) in trade finance, and work with the financial community to resolve funding difficulties. And cut short-term export insurance costs by 30 Zu 35%, and shorten the payment period of insurance premiums from 2 months to 1 month.

Gleichzeitig, the Ministry of Industry decided to postpone or replace the exhibition and trade mission visits held in China in the first quarter with video. Enterprises with a higher export ratio to China will give priority to supporting export vouchers to explore new southern markets, ensure that external risks will not affect Korean trade, and seek to diversify export structures of different types and markets. For auto parts, to ensure the stability of the supply chain, it is planned to invite the Chinese government to invite the movement of parts factories.

A person in charge of the Ministry of Industry stated that due to the suspension of Chinese enterprises, the revenue of South Korean parts exporters to China and South Korean companies in China will shrink, and the supply and demand of companies that import parts from China may also be affected. As Wuhan Port, China ’s largest inland container port was suspended on the 25th of last month, the volume of imported and exported cargo at the connected Shanghai port may also be affected.

Goldman Sachs said that due to the decline of China’s tourism industry and exports, the Novel Coronavirus outbreak may have a 0.4% impact on China’s economic growth and may drag the US economy down. Goldman Sachs cut China’s 2020 GDP growth forecast from 5.9% Zu 5.5%. The bank expects the U.S. economy to be hit by 0.4% in the first quarter but said that economic growth may rebound in the next quarter.

Morgan Stanley said that the recent outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus in China may affect global economic growth in the short term and may cause China’s economic growth in the first quarter to decline by up to 1 percentage point. The company said that in China, tourism, entertainment, and retail are likely to be most affected, and extending plant shutdowns could affect industrial output and trade. The delayed start nationwide alone may reduce industrial production in January and February by 1.5 Zu 2 percentage points. If the 2019-nCoV virus peaks in February or March, economic growth in the first quarter may be affected by 0.5 Zu 1 percentage point, but the subsequent recovery will be more robust, driven by replenishment inventory demand and countercyclical policies. Morgan Stanley said that if the epidemic peaks in three to four months, China’s economic growth in the first half of the year may be dragged down by 0.6 Zu 1.1 percentage points, but this may be offset by stronger policy support.

The EMS industry will also be hit hard. Taking Hon Hai(Foxconn) als Beispiel, it has 700,000 Zu 1 million employees at its bases in mainland China and produces smartphones, home appliances, game consoles, and servers, usw., and supplies them to the world. Late February will start the supply of cheap iPhones that will be available in March. If the resumption of the postponement is continued, it will lead to the delay of time to market and inventory preparation.

Originally because the Lunar New Year was earlier this year, it is generally believed that the revenue performance in February may be better than that in January and the same period of last year when the number of working days is more complete than in January. Jedoch, affected by multiple factors such as the spread of Wuhan pneumonia epidemic and closure of the city, delayed construction in some areas, usw., in terms of panel components, optics, Netcom and other industries, many manufacturers will have less than expected February revenue.

As for LCD monitor components, the light guide plate factory Maolin-KY Shanghai factory mainly produces IT application products, but since most of the products sold to the United States have been transferred to Taiwan for manufacturing last year, the actual impact remains to be seen. As the backlight module factory Ruiyi has set up factories in Wujiang and Guangzhou, the initial estimate may affect nearly half of its production capacity in early February. Zusätzlich, Chengmei Materials, a polarizing film factory, has recently focused on reinvesting in Kunshan factories and mainland operations. It is expected that it will be difficult to do anything before the epidemic slows down. The system integration manufacturer Jia Shida also currently has a production capacity in Suzhou, but due to the company’s wide production capacity distribution, it has been actively developing in the direction of diversification in recent years. The impact of new business layouts including medical and smart solutions on profitability has continued. It is estimated that the impact will be limited.

All the polarizing film production lines of the polarizing film factory are in Taiwan, and the Suzhou factory has little influence. Jedoch, the demand for medical resources has skyrocketed in the short term. It is worth observing whether AUO BenQ’s overall medical business and BenQ Hospital will benefit. Janice’s current four major product lines include heat spreaders, ILM fasteners, water-cooled cooling modules, and LED lead frames. The production capacity is roughly dispersed, but ILM fasteners may be affected by the delayed start of the Wuxi plant.

Because Dingyuan has a factory in Wuhan, it mainly cooperates with the parent company to carry out some part of the inspection process. As Wuhan City has no clarification, the company is ready for the long-term war. Originally, this year, because the Lunar New Year was earlier, it is generally believed that the operating performance of February may be better than that of January and the same period of last year when the number of working days is more complete than that of January. Jedoch, due to the spread of the pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan and closure of the city, the government announced that delayed construction in some areas, and other factors, the panel components, optics, Netcom and other industries, many manufacturers will have less than expected February revenue.

As for the optical components, Daliguang has some of its rear-stage production capacity in Suzhou, Dongguan, and other places in China, but its core processes and production capacity are all in Taiwan. Yujingguang’s main production capacity is in Xiamen, which is not yet in a severely affected area. Melco’s (3630) ‘s capacity divisions are in Taichung and Dongguan, but the focus of its business in the past two years has been on customers in mainland China. The specific impact remains to be seen. The production bases of Yaguang and the reinvested Yatai are located in Guangdong, China, and Myanmar, but the focus of production has been moved to Myanmar in recent years. It is speculated that if China ’s response to the epidemic-related control measures is prolonged, it should have more flexibility.

In terms of the Netcom ethnic group, affected by the US-China trade war, because Netcom products are at the forefront of the front line, Taiwan Netcom manufacturers have already moved their production capacity back to Taiwan or moved to Southeast Asian countries to build new factories. Although in the short term, it will still be affected by the delayed start of Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province in the mainland, and even in the medium term, it will not be known how long it will last, but at least the risk of over-concentration of production capacity is dispersed early.

Darunter, Zhang and Shenzhen invested and expanded production in Miaoli and Taoyuan, Taiwan. Zhonglei has invested heavily in setting up factories in the Philippines. Zhiyi, Qiyi, and the text all went to Vietnam to build a new factory. Qiyi also expanded production in Tainan, Taiwan. Also, Ming Tai acquired Vietnamese production capacity through the acquisition of Zhong Qi.

Industry players said that due to the spread of the pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan, the mainland government offered a series of measures, and it is inevitable that negative performance in February will be negatively affected in the short term. In addition to the fact that the factory location may directly face problems such as the closure of the city, traffic restrictions, working days, usw. (refer to the table below), the parts supply chain and the epidemic situation of the customer’s location will have some indirect effects. Also, since the epidemic has spread to all parts of the world, the assessment should not have any customer reordering effect. Jedoch, as the epidemic situation may reach its peak within the last two months at the earliest, there is a chance that it will gradually slow down, and the originally deferred demand is expected to be released and turned into urgent orders. daher, if we look at the performance of 2020 over a long period, we may see the full picture.

As one of the most developed regions in the China domestic electronics industry, Wuhan has factories in China’s top three LCD& OLED display panels—Huaxing Optoelectronics(CSOT), Tianma Microelectronics, and BOE. Darunter, CSOT has a sixth-generation flexible display panel production line(OLED) in Wuhan, which mainly produces flexible screens and foldable OLED panels for 3~12 inch smartphones, and mainstream mobile phone manufacturers downstream. If the display panel link is “blocked”, it will undoubtedly affect the global consumer electronics industry.

According to the TCL Group, CSOT’s t3 and t4 factories that produce small and medium-sized products are located in Wuhan. During the Spring Festival, production and operation were planned, and the current shipping channels for finished products are normal. As of the date of this announcement, there is no confirmed personnel in the factory area and supporting areas. The current employees can guarantee the operation of the production line, and the company will arrange personnel to return to the factory after the holiday in strict accordance with the epidemic prevention and control requirements. Jedoch, TCL Group also pointed out that at present the company’s material inventory can meet the current production needs, but due to the epidemic situation, the supply of some production materials may have short-term lag due to factors such as delayed supplier resumption and poor logistics. The company has actively coordinated logistics channels, Negotiate guarantees with strategic suppliers to promote materials to enter the market as needed. The company will adjust its production and operation strategies in a timely manner according to the Novel Coronavirus situation and market changes.

According to Reuters, Huawei said on Monday that it has resumed production of products including consumer equipment and carrier equipment and that the business is already running normally. The company currently resumes most of its production operations in Dongguan, Guangdong. In addition to Huawei, other companies have been maintaining production even during the Spring Festival, aiming to ensure the stability of the domestic technology supply chain. To stop the spread of the pneumonia epidemic caused by 2019-nCoV in mainland China, the government has called on some factories to delay work. Jedoch, as a key industry, some Chinese technology companies have resumed work and resumed the production of parts and products.

It is reported that BOE has a 10.5-generation TFT-LCD production line in Wuhan, which mainly produces 65- and 75-inch high-resolution LCD panels and main customers are TV manufacturers. Jedoch, the production line has not yet been mass-produced, and the impact is limited.

On the evening of January 29, Hubei Province held a routine press conference on the prevention and control of the pneumonia epidemic caused by the new coronavirus(2019-nCoV). Tianma Microelectronics told the media that the company was in normal production.

The third quarterly report for 2019 shows that Shentianma A’s operating income was 23.422 billion yuan, an increase of 7.74% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to mothers was 1.034 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.03%.

On January 26, Donghu High-tech Zone announced to accept social donations. As of 17:00 on January 29, Wuhan Tianma Microelectronics Co., GmbH. has participated in donations. China Optics Valley said that with the help of the whole society, the epidemic prevention and control work in Optics Valley is being carried out in an orderly manner. The donated materials received have been distributed to the frontlines of epidemic prevention such as hospitals and communities, and the received donated funds have also been used to purchase the materials that are currently in short supply.

It is understood that Sanan Optoelectronics is mainly engaged in the development and application of compound semiconductor materials, with epitaxial wafers and chips related to new semiconductor materials such as gallium arsenide, gallium nitride, silicon carbide, indium phosphide, aluminum nitride, and sapphire as the core. main job. Sanan Optoelectronics’ factories are mainly concentrated in Xiamen and Quanzhou, while the Ezhou factory in Hubei Province is under construction. daher, the impact of the pneumonia epidemic is not great.

On February 3, the company stated that the current pneumonia epidemic had little effect on the company’s production and operations. It is understood that, based on the practice of previous years, Wuhan Fangu has made corresponding material inventory reserves for production delivery during and after the Spring Festival; during the Spring Festival, a small number of employees of the company worked overtime to respond to urgent orders. As of now, in terms of domestic cargo logistics and transportation, highway channels are unblocked, so it is not affected by the epidemic.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the company’s management has attached great importance to it. Before the holiday, a special working group was quickly established to organize the epidemic prevention and control work, to guide all employees to conduct effective self-prevention during the holidays and to establish smooth and perfect contacts with local governments and epidemic prevention agencies Mechanism, and actively implement the guidance and supervision of epidemic prevention work by governments at all levels. During the Spring Festival, with the further development of the epidemic, the company strictly complied with the guidance and requirements of the State Council and the government of each plant area, arranged for employees to postpone the return of work, and encouraged the implementation of a remote office. Gleichzeitig, necessary safety measures are taken in various factories and employee living parks, and personnel temperature testing, office area disinfection, visitor control, and catering health management are strictly performed. Organizations at all levels grasp the return situation and physical condition of employees in real-time, open a human resources hotline to answer employees’ questions and make adequate preparations for the return to work. SMIC has worked hard to overcome many difficulties, and with a lot of solid and meticulous epidemic prevention and control work, it has ensured the normal operation of the company and its supply chain at present, and production lines in various regions continue to carry out production operations as planned. As of now, there have been no cases of infection of the novel coronavirus among employees.

Laut Statistik, mehr als 60 domestic listed companies are located in Wuhan. In terms of domestic semiconductors, Changjiang Storage is also headquartered in Wuhan. What is the current situation of domestic flash memory production?

Yangtze River Storage said that the company’s flash memory production is currently in an orderly manner, and the company will first consider employee health as the priority.

In terms of raw material supply and logistics, Yangtze River Storage is currently actively coordinating to ensure the normal operation of the production line. Derzeit, the production and operation of the Yangtze River storage are in a normal and orderly manner. The long-term storage in the factory area and the employees of the manufacturer have no infection cases of the new coronavirus(2019-nCoV), and partition isolation control measures are adopted to avoid the introduction of external viruses.

Guangzhou CanSemi Technology Inc. was established in December 2017 and is located in the Guangzhou Knowledge City in the China Development Zone in Guangzhou. CanSemi Technology is the first 12-inch chip manufacturing company in China with a virtual IDM as its operating strategy. It owns the first 12-inch chip production line in Guangzhou. It is also the only 12-inch chip production currently in mass production in Guangdong Province, Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau Bay Area. platform.

Also, employees of TSMC traveling to the mainland need to receive travel epidemic prevention kits, including masks, disinfection supplies, and health education forms. Those who have entered the mainland after January 15 need to wear masks to return to Taiwan and enter the factory area.

Gao Menghua, TSMC’s acting spokesperson and manager of the Public Relations Department, said that it has not yet achieved the same level as during the SARS peak period, but will also discuss in a working meeting. When the epidemic situation reaches a certain level, it may be possible to implement full-face masks.

Previously, during the SARS outbreak in 2003, TSMC took early precautionary measures to prevent epidemics, including self-isolation for 14 days after returning from the epidemic area; the company provided full masks, and all employees wore masks to work.

The company’s glass substrate project was put into production in 2019. Corning already has three factories in Beijing, Chongqing, and Hefei in China and its downstream impact should be limited to Hubei’s internal panel factory.

Wuhan Hongxin said that the factory is in the stage of waiting for the machine to enter the factory, and there is no shipping problem at present. Jedoch, whether the epidemic will affect the arrival of equipment and further affect the research and development and production process requires further observation. It is expected that during Q1-Q2 of 2020, Wuhan Hongxin machine equipment will enter the peak period. The equipment that has already entered the factory is mainly lithography machines, and other equipment will be in place after March.

daher, the Chinese feel grief for their compatriots who have lost their lives, but there is no reason to be pessimistic about the future of the Chinese economy. The Chinese can rely on themselves to overcome difficulties and epidemic situations. In the most difficult times in the past, we all came through “self-reliance and hard work”, and today we have no reason to worry, we can’t stand it. Those who are down the rocks and restrict Chinese travel, and those who want to watch Chinese jokes, they not only lose the support of justice, they are despised by the entire Chinese people, and they will certainly be despised by the entire human race. Frustrated.

Today, despite many uncertainties every day in the world, we firmly believe that the Chinese people’s victory over the pneumonia epidemic caused by Novel Coronavirus(2019-nCoV) is the most certain thing! We firmly believe that in the long run, the operation of the market is rational after all, and the market performance will be better. Danke.